Tropical Waves

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W, south of 16N and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to near 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 08N. The strongest convection is evident off Liberia.

Gulf Of America

A 1025 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A few showers are occurring in the nearshore waters of the NW Gulf. Generally dry conditions dominate the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity.

Caribbean Sea

Broad ridge located east of Bermuda forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. A few showers are noted south of Cuba, while generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, he pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level low situated north of the NW Bahamas continues to enhance the shower activity between 71W and 76W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge east of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 27N and west of 55W.

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N28W and continues southwestward to 26N41W, followed by a stationary front to 27N62W. A few light showers are evident ahead of these fronts. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 14N to 22N and east of 22W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 23N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from off the central Bahamas southward to the Windward Passage through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Delgado