Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N21W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 01N36W to Brazil near 01S50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 04N W of 26W.

Gulf Of America

A cold front extends from near Apalachicola, Florida, to south of Tampico, Mexico. Recent scatterometer data show strong to near gale force N to NW winds W and NW of the front across the offshore waters N of Veracruz, Mexico and offshore Texas and Louisiana. The front is also supporting scattered heavy showers from the Florida Panhandle offshores to the NW Gulf offshore waters. Seas behind the front are 8 to 11 ft based on the latest altimeter data. Ahead of the front, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the NE and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the cold front will move slowly SW and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon night. The front will then stall Tue night into Thu from SW Florida into the SW basin. Scattered thunderstorms with locally gusty winds will accompany the front. Strong NE winds and rough seas will continue in the western Gulf behind the front through Mon, then strong NE winds will develop in the NE basin N of the boundary Tue through Thu. Conditions will improve some Fri and Fri night as high pressure from the eastern U.S builds southwestward toward the northern Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between subtropical Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low continues to support moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin where seas are moderate to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are mainly gentle from the NE and seas are slight.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will shift eastward into Mon allowing for pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia to diminish. A trough just north of the Windward Passage will meander into mid-week, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Carribbean, with mainly gentle winds to the west. Winds will likely increase again in the south- central Caribbean starting Wed night as a new high pressure builds southward from the western Atlantic.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad subtropical ridge covers the region and support moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the central subtropical waters along with moderate seas to 7 ft. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are also moderate to fresh from the E to SE, and seas are moderate to rough in decaying NE swell E of the Bahamas. Otherwise, over the far E Atlantic, winds are moderate or weaker from the N to NE and seas are moderateb to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the SE coast late tonight, then move slowly SE and reach 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida, by Tuesday morning, and Bermuda to South Florida by Wed morning, before stalling. Low pressure is likely to form along the front NE of the Bahamas Tue night, then accelerate NE toward Bermuda into Wed. The gradient between this low and high pressure building into the SE U.S. In the wake of the front will lead to widespread near-gale-force NE to E winds behind the front, along with very rough seas. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast, and stay informed for the possibility of gale conditions developing as early as Tue.

Posted 53 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos